On the probability of attaining Critical Mass from Mystery Crates

[limsup]

I have opened this thread because I would like to know more about the mechanics of the Mystery Crate. Lately it seems that the probability of getting a Nuclear Strike from the Mystery Crate has increased to ridiculous heights on some servers. It appears to me that tonight on the server we played 7 out of 10 crates would produce some U²³⁵ to the person that was unfortunate enough to stumble upon the Mystery Crate. (There was a player, on the level “XMountain” who had picked up not less than SIX consecutive Nuclear Strikes, while I myself ran over only two of them.)

If I understand correctly, the Wiki page of the Mystery Crate states, that:

“Mystery Crates' yields and other settings can be modified by a server owner at their discretion.”

So the level of control granted to the server administrators over the (supposedly to a serious degree) random function which decides what the crate will yield is so great, that they upon mere whim can turn the crates into practically a nuclear minefield (and blown sky-high with other, innocent bystanders)?

If so, what would you suggest besides the total avoidance of the Mystery Crates, and carrying a Beryllium neutron mirror and some graphite moderators in our trousers?

Jokes aside: what would under normal circumstances by default the probability of getting a Nuclear Strike from a Mystery crate be?

[Madkill40]

Nukes in crates were disabled for quite some time, I'm aware that at times the settings have been changed so every other crate was a nuke crate but this (or so I thought) was only for a day or two. 

Nukes should be uncommon to rare or off by default. 

[boxes]

Nuke crates should be removed from the game

[Hohndo]

1 hour ago, CampinJeff said:

Nuke crates should be removed from the game

I'm perfectly fine with a buffed c4 create that has damage increased and does more AoE, but the nuke needs to go..

[Fffreak9999]

Bare in mind, that all crates work on Weights given to their probability of occuring on any pickup.

However not all crates exist at the start of the map (some only start appearing 2-3+ mins into matches)

So you will find that early on, Nukes appear to be far more frequent, despite that overall the weight is around 0.15-0.2, it is just that the other options are not either available or not high enough to occur with as much frequency as is seen, and most crates have an occurrence bonus later in the match when time passes or buildings are lost.

Bare in mind also that your crates statistics are quite heavily based on your own visible experience, and many of the crates are "silent" which are ones you generally don't pay attention to.

For a quick run down, here is a list of some of the other crates you can encounter

Money crates

Veterancy points

Character change

Spy crate

Vehicle crates

Tib sun vehicle

Timed C4 crates

Movement speed

Refill crates

 

With all of these crate possibilities, you only really see 3-4 of them with visible outcomes (Vehicle Crates, Spies/Character crates and Death Crates)

Death crates (Nukes/C4/Abduction/Suicide) are pretty rare when you take the total weights into account (especially at the later points of a match) as they do not increase in probability with time or building destruction.

[yosh56]

1 hour ago, Fffreak9999 said:

Bare in mind, that all crates work on Weights given to their probability of occuring on any pickup.

However not all crates exist at the start of the map (some only start appearing 2-3+ mins into matches)

So you will find that early on, Nukes appear to be far more frequent, despite that overall the weight is around 0.15-0.2, it is just that the other options are not either available or not high enough to occur with as much frequency as is seen, and most crates have an occurrence bonus later in the match when time passes or buildings are lost.

Bare in mind also that your crates statistics are quite heavily based on your own visible experience, and many of the crates are "silent" which are ones you generally don't pay attention to.

For a quick run down, here is a list of some of the other crates you can encounter

Money crates

Veterancy points

Character change

Spy crate

Vehicle crates

Tib sun vehicle

Timed C4 crates

Movement speed

Refill crates

 

With all of these crate possibilities, you only really see 3-4 of them with visible outcomes (Vehicle Crates, Spies/Character crates and Death Crates)

Death crates (Nukes/C4/Abduction/Suicide) are pretty rare when you take the total weights into account (especially at the later points of a match) as they do not increase in probability with time or building destruction.

But they pretty much suck. I literally left them in for the sake of April 1st, and because some weird people like them... 

 

Though admittedly nuke crates have the ability to be hilarious... but 9/10 they're just annoying. 

[limsup]

Dear Fffreak9999, thank you very much for the comprehensive answer! You made a fair - if uncomfortable - point. Having studied 2 semesters of Probability Theory and Statistics I believe that I understand your point of view:

1 hour ago, yosh56 said:

Bare in mind also that your crates statistics are quite heavily based on your own visible experience, and many of the crates are "silent" which are ones you generally don't pay attention to.

Even though they are announced, when picked up (with their nature), it is unlikely that every crate is picked up all the time not to mention for a single person to completely keep track of these events (you should have a more comprehensive view of this from the server logs). Nor do I know that the contents of the crates are determined at the time of their spawning, or could they "age" into something else, or morph due to some external impact (the end of your last sentence could imply that other types may be able to do that). Furthermore I do understand, that the Nuke Strike crate has been in existence since Tiberian Dawn, and "punishment" is necessary to preserve the Mystery aspect of the Mystery Crate.

My concerns would primarily be about the adverse effects that Mystery Crates with high Probability Weights regarding Nuclear Strike could have to the game play. It is in my opinion, that this particular crate could raise some ethical implications. In numerous situations, when someone happens upon one of them, there is a good chance, that other innocent bystanders will be also caught in the nuclear fire. I have seen examples of one happy player hurrying to pick up the crate - only to annihilate 3 others within its vicinity, whilst laying siege to the enemy base, hindering the offense.

All in all, I am just saying (meaning absolutely no offense to anyone), that the case of the Nuclear Strike crates could be worth some deliberation.

[dtdesign]

13 hours ago, CampinJeff said:

Nuke crates should be removed from the game

^ THIS!

 

It's just plain stupid to walk around and getting nuked out of nowhere. Fighting in the ice cave on Under and somebody above me pick up a nuke crate, aaaaaand I'm gone. Playing complex and driving around with a tank on the mid path, someone in the underground picks up a nuke crate and boom, my tank is gone.

The issue is not that one as the crate collecting player gets send to low earth orbit, but rather that I just happen to be nearby. Like farming myself a med on Walls w/ no ref and then get destroyed by a random nuke crate picked up by some SBH scum.

I'm okay with nukes as long as it does not harm nearby players.

 

PS: Had it just yesterday on Reservoir, "They." picked up nuke after nuke and the Dam was vaporized every few minutes or so.

Like
"Doza rush inco..."
*NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED!!!111!*
"nvm."

[Fffreak9999]

Crates determine their content at the time they are picked up, so the content is not determined in-advance, they take a snap shot of the probabilities at the time of pick up and then the content is chosen from the crates that are valid at that time.
 

Quote

 

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Money]
BaseProbability=0.45
StartSpawnTime=0
ProbabilityIncreaseWhenPowerPlantDestroyed=0.75
ProbabilityIncreaseWhenRefineryDestroyed=0.75
MinutesToGiveSmallSum=5.0

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Spy]
BaseProbability=0.15
StartSpawnTime=180
MinutesUntilProbabiltyIncreaseStart=15.0
ProbabilityIncreasePerMinute=0.05
MaxProbabilityIncrease=0.8

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Refill]
BaseProbability=0.35
StartSpawnTime=150

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Vehicle]
BaseProbability=0.35
StartSpawnTime=200
ProbabilityIncreaseWhenVehicleProductionDestroyed=0.75

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Character]
BaseProbability=0.35
StartSpawnTime=60
ProbabilityIncreaseWhenInfantryProductionDestroyed=0.75

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Speed]
BaseProbability=0.45
StartSpawnTime=120

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Suicide]
BaseProbability=0.0
StartSpawnTime=0

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_TimeBomb]
BaseProbability=0.1
StartSpawnTime=0

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Nuke]
BaseProbability=0.1
StartSpawnTime=0

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Abduction]
BaseProbability=0.02
StartSpawnTime=0

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_TSVehicle]
BaseProbability=0.2
StartSpawnTime=240
ProbabilityIncreaseWhenVehicleProductionDestroyed=0.2

[RenX_Game.Rx_CrateType_Veterancy]
BaseProbability=0.8
StartSpawnTime=0

 

So for example CT Marathon has a combined (Initial) weight of 3.32 (Sum of all initial weights before modification) assuming all crates are active.

 

The chance of getting a nuke at 00:30 (30 seconds in)

Money - 0.45

Nuke - 0.1

Abduction - 0.02

Timed C4 - 0.1

Veterancy -  0.8

[Total Weight = 1.47]

 

At 1 minute in the chance of a nuke appearing in a crate is weighted against the following crates at the following weights

Money - 0.45

Character - 0.35

Timed C4 - 0.1

Nuke - 0.1

Abduction - 0.02

Veterancy - 0.8

[Total Weight = 1.82]

 

If you reach the maximum possibilties for crates with all the modifiers, you would have:

Money - 1.95

Spy - 1.05

Refill - 0.35

Vehicle - 1.1

Character - 1.1

Speed Crate - 0.45

Timed C4 - 0.1

Nuke - 0.1

Abduction - 0.02

Tib Sun Vehicle - 0.4

Veterancy - 0.8

[Total Weight = 7.42]

 

You can see a large decrease in the percentage of nukes appearing in the crate just 60 seconds in.

By 5 minutes you have hit the 3.32 (without building loss modifiers).

If my math is correct I think it comes out at ~3% at full weights for 0.1 weight at 5 mins in and ~6.8% per 0.1 at 30 seconds and at maximum weights about ~1.3%

If you assume that the average match lasts from 45-60 minutes and you have about 3 crates per minute, That gives you anywhere from 135-180 crates collected.

So 6-7 nukes easily can be found in those percentages and time frames, with most of them being in the early game.

 

 

As for this:

1 hour ago, dtdesign said:

I'm okay with nukes as long as it does not harm nearby players.

I would change that slightly, to only affect the team of the person who picks it up.

I feel that some detrimental occurances need to happen, since it is a "Mystery Crate" not a "Power Up/Pure beneficial crate"

I agree that nukes are a little heavy handed at the moment, but if you take into account your scenario

1 hour ago, dtdesign said:

The issue is not that one as the crate collecting player gets send to low earth orbit, but rather that I just happen to be nearby. Like farming myself a med on Walls w/ no ref and then get destroyed by a random nuke crate picked up by some SBH scum.

You should be thinking: "Is there any need for me to collect this crate"

If you are on the offense (pushed the enemy back into their base and camping the entrance) the answer should really be no, you have the advantage and while most outcomes are positive, it also has the downside of being potentially catastrophic to your team. Now if the enemy picked it up and they managed to destroy your tank thats almost balanced admittedly they took out something worth twice as much but they still died, and assuming a similar situation (no ref) for the enemy, even though it is a negative outcome (crate), they still managed to achieve a positive outcome from that negative (Cost vs Gain).

Personally I feel that crates need a positive and negative side, as it balances out some of the randomness of regular public matches. And most of the time the nukes radius only hits 1/2 people at worst since they tend to be placed in places out of the normal pathing routes (off vehicle paths or to one side).

[Ukill]

I think the crate settings are ok, and i dont see often a CrateNuke, and still waiting for my first abduction.
It would be fun if the crate would be shared with the whole team instead of one player.
But wait, maybe we can write the name of content on the outside of the crate....Problem solved!! 

 

[Sn4ke]

1 hour ago, Ukill said:

and i dont see often a CrateNuke

you're playing on a different server then

[limsup]

Thank you again Fffreak9999 for your detailed answer, I appreciate it very much!

4 hours ago, Fffreak9999 said:

I feel that some detrimental occurances need to happen, since it is a "Mystery Crate" not a "Power Up/Pure beneficial crate"

I concur. 

 

4 hours ago, Fffreak9999 said:

You should be thinking: "Is there any need for me to collect this crate"

Exactly! This occupied my thoughts way too often. But alas - it takes only one over-eager player to unleash ruin upon others 

 

4 hours ago, Fffreak9999 said:

Personally I feel that crates need a positive and negative side, as it balances out some of the randomness of regular public matches.

Well yes, I do believe it has a certain potential to add some unexpected "twists" to the game. I would wholeheartedly agree with your proposition on revising the Nuke Crate's damage to the opposing team. I think that this, combined with some fine-tuning of the Nuclear option's probability weights could lead to a positive resolution of this issue for a significant percentage of the players. (If we could filter out some statistical extremes, like poor They. getting his sixth consecutive Nuke, it could lead to a larger consensus).

[Ukill]

6 hours ago, DarkSn4ke said:

you're playing on a different server then

I dont play often and specially not the last weeks, i was to busy with things as shown below.

To the point:
As far as i know is the Rx_Weapon_CrateNuke included in the class Rx_CrateType_Nuke.

So if you talk with me over things like this and you call it a CrateNuke or a NukeCrate, i really should think they can be the same, but also with this i can be wrong!.

class Rx_CrateType_Nuke extends Rx_CrateType;

function string GetGameLogMessage(Rx_PRI RecipientPRI, Rx_CratePickup CratePickup)
{
	return "GAME" `s "Crate;" `s "nuke" `s "by" `s `PlayerLog(RecipientPRI);
}

function float GetProbabilityWeight(Rx_Pawn Recipient, Rx_CratePickup CratePickup)
{
	if (CratePickup.bNoNukeDeath)
		return 0;
	else return super.GetProbabilityWeight(Recipient,CratePickup);
}

function ExecuteCrateBehaviour(Rx_Pawn Recipient, Rx_PRI RecipientPRI, Rx_CratePickup CratePickup)
{
	local Rx_Weapon_CrateNuke Beacon;
	local Rotator spawnRotation;
	local Vector spawnLocation;

	Recipient.GetActorEyesViewPoint(spawnLocation,spawnRotation);

	Beacon = CratePickup.Spawn(class'Rx_Weapon_CrateNuke',,, CratePickup.Location,CratePickup.Rotation);
	Beacon.TeamNum = TEAM_UNOWNED;
}

DefaultProperties
{
	PickupSound = SoundCue'RX_EVA_VoiceClips.Nod_EVA.S_EVA_Nod_Beacon_NuclearStrikeImminent_Cue'
	BroadcastMessageIndex = 3
}

 

@DarkSn4ke Maybe you can tell me what the difference is, then i can learn something too.  

But back to the subject, in the end i think the CrateNuke  is a good opposite for the "Other" fantastic things you could get,
and especially because the mostly at nothing special to the "team", and only feed the hunger of greedy people, that complain after they walk on a NukeCrate. I think it should be a mystery,  instead of only getting the "Positive things".

I hate the CrateNuke , because you mostly get them when its not the best moment in game, but in the other hand i love the NukeCrate, because they give some fun moments in the game, for example when you plan to have some inf rush and somebody decide to get the CrateNuke, when you see it relative you don't get them often, mostly not, and mostly the leading team does get the crates. I think people that complain are to greedy, u can also choose to not pick the crate, that is what I should ask myself.

[Wrench]

16 hours ago, dtdesign said:

I'm okay with nukes as long as it does not harm nearby players.

This

[djlaptop]

For April 1st, I think the nuke crate should kill every player in the game. There also should be a crate that spawns an enemy guard tower.

[dtdesign]

2 hours ago, djlaptop said:

For April 1st, I think the nuke crate should kill every player in the game. There also should be a crate that spawns an enemy guard tower.

This is also on CT, Ukill calls them "accidential key press"

[Ukill]

6 minutes ago, dtdesign said:

This is also on CT, Ukill calls them "accidential key press"

oYeah, damn macro keys!!  

 

[Henk]

omg

[limsup]

19 hours ago, Ukill said:

oYeah, damn macro keys!!  

 

Is this a Corsair K90? How do the Cherry Red switches perform? I myself am the owner of an original IBM Model M keyboard, which has switches roughly equivalent to Cherry Blue. Although it has far fewer keys (not even Win keys, since mine is an 1987 model) 

[Ukill]

40 minutes ago, limsup said:

Is this a Corsair K90? 

Almost the right one, its the K95 

http://www.corsair.com/en-gb/corsair-gaming-k95-rgb-mechanical-gaming-keyboard-cherry-mx-brown

40 minutes ago, limsup said:

How do the Cherry Red switches perform?

About the (Brown Cherry keys) switches i am totally happy, i did choose this keys because they are a good middle-of-the-road option, and even they don't have the "Click" thing, you still hear them.

The only thing i don't like about the keyboard is the layout. When you type it gives often a feeling that all the keys are to far placed from each other, and often it happens that i run by accident a macro keys, after a year i am still not getting used to the extra (Macro)keys of the left side of my keyboard. So i  removed the enter after the "NukeAll" command to protect it from run by accident, but also that does not protect it 100%.  For Example : When i hit "NukeAll" key and after "StartFire" key the command line contains: NukeAll StartFire (Enter). And there will be a nuke-party.

Handy about this keyboard is that you can set the colors of the keys static or dynamic. For example, i programmed some keys so that they will blink after they are touched/ Also you can create 3 different profiles (Marco/Lighting) which you can select with dedicated keys. Also a nice feature is that you can record a macro to every key and the 100% Anti-Ghosting.

40 minutes ago, limsup said:

I myself am the owner of an original IBM Model M keyboard, which has switches roughly equivalent to Cherry Blue. Although it has far fewer keys (not even Win keys, since mine is an 1987 model) 

Coool, i love special and old keyboards, especially when you can defend yourself with it, then you got a nice keyboard imo.  
 

[Madkill40]

Maybe on April 1st just have every crate be a Spy crate.

Because that's a far better April fools than WTFBOOMOVERDOINGITBITCHFGT.

Because on April fools, TRUST NOBODY.